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Jenny Ouyang's avatar

The line about "predicting the present is harder than predicting the future once was" really hits. I've noticed this in a smaller way, trying to explain what's actually possible with AI tools right now versus what people assume is possible. The gap changes every few weeks and the noise makes it worse. Half the discourse is speculation dressed up as experience.

The recursively self-replicating part also tracks. Every time you adjust to what models can do, the next version changes the constraints again. I've had to rewrite entire workflows multiple times this year not because they broke, but because what felt like the "right" approach became obsolete.

It's exhausting in a way that's hard to explain to people who aren't building with this stuff daily.

Jessica Luo's avatar

History is fact to common people vs historiography is literature to proper historians.

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