I’ve been doing a similar thing all the time when “out in the world”. My thoughts are always questioning similar things. Are they aware of what is coming? Do they realise how much the world which change soon? Where do they think they will be in 5 years time? Do they realise that they could access a super smart assistant at anytime anywhere right now?
These are peculiar times, and it really does feel like we are all at a toll booth waiting to see if we will continue towards our next destination…
A question I ask is how much weight to give the history of technology. Think of a date when it began that works for you. (The printing press was invented around 1400.) Now think of all the
jobs that have been invented in the last six hundred years. Is that a depressing story? Not to me. What do you think?
Exactly. I accept that AI may render historical comparisons unusable because it's a recursively improving thing (whether it improves by itself or with our help), which makes it a technology that becomes other technologies and eventually will be able to do all jobs. People like to say "we will manage the AIs!" but this is wishful thinking - AIs will manage the AIs. Others talk about our comparative advantage but it doesn't work if there's a basic resource we both need (e.g., energy). So where will we retreat? I'm also not sure. When robots conquered the physical world we went to the cognitive realm. Now? I don't have that answer. So although I agree with the sentiment, I have no certainty, merely optimism.
Excellent set of word pictures! The future automation and reliability will come, costs to produce that performance will come down and then the transition will begin. The long held assumption is that these workers will work on higher level things. But will they?
Counterpoint: those standardised human roles bring some benefits to this system. They are modular (one person sick doesn’t break the system), they are adaptable (problem with Queue A, Mr. Talbooth gets out of the booth & deals with it), they have a lot of inherent redundancy (people working shifts can pick up & take over). It’s true the machines are way more ordered & efficient … but also fragile easily broken by a cyber hack, power outages etc; Every time the machine glitches (see supermarket tills), the user gets a worse experience than a human queue & can go away feeling super frustrated that the machine has no answer for novel problems. All of which is a way of saying that order & efficiency sounds great. But never underestimate the brilliance of an ordinary human to spot a problem, fix it, adjust it, share it & feel great at a good day’s work. All jobs - even very routinised work - can have meaning & purpose if it is embedded into their design. I’m sure this is why the Toyota Production System originated in Japan which has had centuries of practice turning a mundane task - pouring tea, arranging flowers - into an act of exquisite grace & beauty.
Alberto, I'm not so sure everyone of these background workers longs to be relieved of their current jobs. People need some meaning to get out of bed in the morning and not everyone has artistic aspirations.
BUT, my retirement dream was to be a part-time toll collector between 9:00-12:00 PM. My plan was to read through books I had not read, sitting quietly and greeting the occasional driver. Sadly, my dreams were dashed a few years ago when our nearby bridge (across the Hudson River in NY) tore down the toll booths and put up scanners. Ah, humanity!
You’ll hate your fully automated utopia when the automated toll station in the middle of nowhere doesn’t let you through because an “AI” decided so on a whim of hallucination.
Another likely outcome of "AI taking over" is that both the toll booth operator and the woman restocking the shelves will still have their jobs, but are being constantly monitored by "AI". The lonely toll booth man who used to read a book in between cars, the woman who might have been taking a few more bathroom breaks than strictly necessary to make her job more bearable - once "AI" is deployed to enhance profit margins (of course) that's all over, and they're really degraded to perform like robots while being cheaper and easier to replace than actual robots. For my taste you're far too optimistic and a bit too certain that it won't affect your own life (or that of your grandchildren) negatively, at all.
I like to be optimistic. I just have to look at History to feel appreciative. People could really use a bit of that. There's plenty of reasons to be grateful even if not everything is solved and there's still uncertainty in the air. Only focusing on the bad stuff biases your perspective and makes you depressed. It's really a choice
If that’s the best reply you can come up with to a legitimate comment, I know what to tell you. You just spent too many words describing a utopian world where between 25 and 69 percent of the European workforce will be replaced by automation in the next 20 years (according to Google). You clearly identified realistic use cases and personified the humans affected while thanking your lucky stars it’s not you. This arrogance is undue because as Jens K pointed out, even you will be affected by the idiosyncrasies of technology. Maybe you won’t need to go on the dole like the toll booth operator or the shelf stocker but you will curse it none the same. Welcome to the real world. -jpg
How can you perceive that as arrogance dude? Even what you described that I did doesn't match that word. You're mad because you have bad vibes about this automation thing (fair enough) but your argument (citing "Google"?) is not very strong. I identified the transition as the important part to pay attention to. And asked the people in power to decide to keep that in mind. And you still are mad. I'm actually aorry
After re-reading your post, you are right, I was over-reacting to remarks such as:
“The other Isaac, Newton, would be proud of me. But, as grateful as I am for having been born a wizard, I still have to do this for money.”
This sounds to me a lot like arrogance but it distracted me from your main theme.
Furthermore, I was reading but not hearing your words…
“But I won’t curse anymore. When I find myself stuck in traffic, caught between a bus full of tired faces and an Amazon delivery truck with more haste than an ambulance, I’ll take a long breath and thank them. “
And…
“I only ask these aspiring revolutionaries to pay attention and deep consideration—not just today, like I do, but always—to the transitory, liminal spaces.”
Calling you arrogant for your main theme regarding the future employment opportunities for those we call “blue collar” workers (in the USA at least) was inappropriate and I apologize for this.
I’d like to believe that all of these people will become artists and so forth that will reach fulfillment in other non-robot lifestyles but I’m a realist. Economic turmoil historically costs livelihoods and even lives. (I’m too lazy to go find specific data or references so disagree if you want.)
I, like you, believe that the automation revolution can be in humanities best interest long term. It doesn’t seem to be within the human psyche to prevent it in any case.
Asking “aspiring revolutionaries” to pay attention and consider the consequences is a step in the right direction but as citizens at the scene of the crime so to speak, we have an obligation to our family, friends, and those yet to be born to contribute to solutions to the downsides of automation some how.
Participate in the conversation with reasonable ideas. Is Universal Basic Income a solution? Free education? Better, cheaper healthcare? Converting profits from automation into social programs for the displaced? Something else altogether? People like you who already have a large audience are on the front lines and can have the greatest impact. I ask that you make the best use of it and not diss your commenters, that’s all.
Thanks for your reply and continued writing on this important topic.
The first one is obviously a joke. Newton was deeply interested in alchemy. (It's actually a self-deprecating joke because alchemy was never fruitful.)
Diss my commenters? The first thing you did was calling me arrogant. I like to engage in the comments but I ask you to respect my time like I try to respect yours.
Not sure this is a good example since most tollbooths have been automated where I live for many years and don’t use AI at all. You have a box on your windshield that it scans as you drive by. You barely even slow down. If you don’t have the box, they just take a pic of your license plate and mail you a bill.
Not here so I guess it is the perfect example. Because "automation is not evenly distributed" is the main theme. So you proved my point actually. Also, this isn't really about AI. I don't think I mentioned that even once in the whole article. It's broader
It’s amazing how you mix philosophy and mundane things—altogether with AI. Good one!
Gracias Miguel!!
Alberto! voy a Europa en Junio y creo que estaré un día en Madrid, sería increíble tomarnos un café si da tiempo — hay mucho de qué conversar
I’ve been doing a similar thing all the time when “out in the world”. My thoughts are always questioning similar things. Are they aware of what is coming? Do they realise how much the world which change soon? Where do they think they will be in 5 years time? Do they realise that they could access a super smart assistant at anytime anywhere right now?
These are peculiar times, and it really does feel like we are all at a toll booth waiting to see if we will continue towards our next destination…
Totally!
Have you tried avoiding tomatoes, peppers, chillies, potatoes and aubergines? They all belong to the Solanaceae family and can cause dermatitis.
https://jessicafonteneaunutrition.com/are-nightshades-triggering-your-eczema-heres-what-you-need-to-know/
Unexpected! Thank you Roger, will check that out (I do eat tomatoes and potatoes normally)
You will need to avoid them for a month, then reintroduce each one by one. You will need to include paprika, so chorizo is off the menu too.
Good luck, I hope it works - it did for me.
We need to appreciate each other more. Without HVAC, power, or water, our high-tech society wouldn't function.
A question I ask is how much weight to give the history of technology. Think of a date when it began that works for you. (The printing press was invented around 1400.) Now think of all the
jobs that have been invented in the last six hundred years. Is that a depressing story? Not to me. What do you think?
Exactly. I accept that AI may render historical comparisons unusable because it's a recursively improving thing (whether it improves by itself or with our help), which makes it a technology that becomes other technologies and eventually will be able to do all jobs. People like to say "we will manage the AIs!" but this is wishful thinking - AIs will manage the AIs. Others talk about our comparative advantage but it doesn't work if there's a basic resource we both need (e.g., energy). So where will we retreat? I'm also not sure. When robots conquered the physical world we went to the cognitive realm. Now? I don't have that answer. So although I agree with the sentiment, I have no certainty, merely optimism.
Excellent set of word pictures! The future automation and reliability will come, costs to produce that performance will come down and then the transition will begin. The long held assumption is that these workers will work on higher level things. But will they?
That's the big question, isn't it? The transition - is not an easy thing.
Counterpoint: those standardised human roles bring some benefits to this system. They are modular (one person sick doesn’t break the system), they are adaptable (problem with Queue A, Mr. Talbooth gets out of the booth & deals with it), they have a lot of inherent redundancy (people working shifts can pick up & take over). It’s true the machines are way more ordered & efficient … but also fragile easily broken by a cyber hack, power outages etc; Every time the machine glitches (see supermarket tills), the user gets a worse experience than a human queue & can go away feeling super frustrated that the machine has no answer for novel problems. All of which is a way of saying that order & efficiency sounds great. But never underestimate the brilliance of an ordinary human to spot a problem, fix it, adjust it, share it & feel great at a good day’s work. All jobs - even very routinised work - can have meaning & purpose if it is embedded into their design. I’m sure this is why the Toyota Production System originated in Japan which has had centuries of practice turning a mundane task - pouring tea, arranging flowers - into an act of exquisite grace & beauty.
Alberto, I'm not so sure everyone of these background workers longs to be relieved of their current jobs. People need some meaning to get out of bed in the morning and not everyone has artistic aspirations.
Yes, that's true but I highly doubt those people find meaning in those kinds of jobs.
BUT, my retirement dream was to be a part-time toll collector between 9:00-12:00 PM. My plan was to read through books I had not read, sitting quietly and greeting the occasional driver. Sadly, my dreams were dashed a few years ago when our nearby bridge (across the Hudson River in NY) tore down the toll booths and put up scanners. Ah, humanity!
Why not do that on a farm in the countryside?
You’ll hate your fully automated utopia when the automated toll station in the middle of nowhere doesn’t let you through because an “AI” decided so on a whim of hallucination.
If that's your reaction to this idk what else to tell you haha
Another likely outcome of "AI taking over" is that both the toll booth operator and the woman restocking the shelves will still have their jobs, but are being constantly monitored by "AI". The lonely toll booth man who used to read a book in between cars, the woman who might have been taking a few more bathroom breaks than strictly necessary to make her job more bearable - once "AI" is deployed to enhance profit margins (of course) that's all over, and they're really degraded to perform like robots while being cheaper and easier to replace than actual robots. For my taste you're far too optimistic and a bit too certain that it won't affect your own life (or that of your grandchildren) negatively, at all.
I like to be optimistic. I just have to look at History to feel appreciative. People could really use a bit of that. There's plenty of reasons to be grateful even if not everything is solved and there's still uncertainty in the air. Only focusing on the bad stuff biases your perspective and makes you depressed. It's really a choice
If that’s the best reply you can come up with to a legitimate comment, I know what to tell you. You just spent too many words describing a utopian world where between 25 and 69 percent of the European workforce will be replaced by automation in the next 20 years (according to Google). You clearly identified realistic use cases and personified the humans affected while thanking your lucky stars it’s not you. This arrogance is undue because as Jens K pointed out, even you will be affected by the idiosyncrasies of technology. Maybe you won’t need to go on the dole like the toll booth operator or the shelf stocker but you will curse it none the same. Welcome to the real world. -jpg
How can you perceive that as arrogance dude? Even what you described that I did doesn't match that word. You're mad because you have bad vibes about this automation thing (fair enough) but your argument (citing "Google"?) is not very strong. I identified the transition as the important part to pay attention to. And asked the people in power to decide to keep that in mind. And you still are mad. I'm actually aorry
After re-reading your post, you are right, I was over-reacting to remarks such as:
“The other Isaac, Newton, would be proud of me. But, as grateful as I am for having been born a wizard, I still have to do this for money.”
This sounds to me a lot like arrogance but it distracted me from your main theme.
Furthermore, I was reading but not hearing your words…
“But I won’t curse anymore. When I find myself stuck in traffic, caught between a bus full of tired faces and an Amazon delivery truck with more haste than an ambulance, I’ll take a long breath and thank them. “
And…
“I only ask these aspiring revolutionaries to pay attention and deep consideration—not just today, like I do, but always—to the transitory, liminal spaces.”
Calling you arrogant for your main theme regarding the future employment opportunities for those we call “blue collar” workers (in the USA at least) was inappropriate and I apologize for this.
I’d like to believe that all of these people will become artists and so forth that will reach fulfillment in other non-robot lifestyles but I’m a realist. Economic turmoil historically costs livelihoods and even lives. (I’m too lazy to go find specific data or references so disagree if you want.)
I, like you, believe that the automation revolution can be in humanities best interest long term. It doesn’t seem to be within the human psyche to prevent it in any case.
Asking “aspiring revolutionaries” to pay attention and consider the consequences is a step in the right direction but as citizens at the scene of the crime so to speak, we have an obligation to our family, friends, and those yet to be born to contribute to solutions to the downsides of automation some how.
Participate in the conversation with reasonable ideas. Is Universal Basic Income a solution? Free education? Better, cheaper healthcare? Converting profits from automation into social programs for the displaced? Something else altogether? People like you who already have a large audience are on the front lines and can have the greatest impact. I ask that you make the best use of it and not diss your commenters, that’s all.
Thanks for your reply and continued writing on this important topic.
-jgp
The first one is obviously a joke. Newton was deeply interested in alchemy. (It's actually a self-deprecating joke because alchemy was never fruitful.)
Diss my commenters? The first thing you did was calling me arrogant. I like to engage in the comments but I ask you to respect my time like I try to respect yours.
Not sure this is a good example since most tollbooths have been automated where I live for many years and don’t use AI at all. You have a box on your windshield that it scans as you drive by. You barely even slow down. If you don’t have the box, they just take a pic of your license plate and mail you a bill.
Not here so I guess it is the perfect example. Because "automation is not evenly distributed" is the main theme. So you proved my point actually. Also, this isn't really about AI. I don't think I mentioned that even once in the whole article. It's broader