For now it is hard to imagine that LLM development won’t be an arms race with unfathomable resource expenditures in the next couple of years.
That being said, it is equally hard to guess how many applications and use cases will really need the mattest and greatest models.
Think iPhones, WEIRD (western, educated, ...) people tend to have them but the majority of the planet in terms of numbers use different phones. It is plausible that in the future most LLMs won’t be cutting edge but specialized agents.
Also, bar patents or regulatory constraints there isn’t anything yet(!) in principle that can’t be done by a group of motivated people (side note: this is likely the reason why synthetic biology is having a hard time to advance as fast as people had hoped).
For now it is hard to imagine that LLM development won’t be an arms race with unfathomable resource expenditures in the next couple of years.
That being said, it is equally hard to guess how many applications and use cases will really need the mattest and greatest models.
Think iPhones, WEIRD (western, educated, ...) people tend to have them but the majority of the planet in terms of numbers use different phones. It is plausible that in the future most LLMs won’t be cutting edge but specialized agents.
Also, bar patents or regulatory constraints there isn’t anything yet(!) in principle that can’t be done by a group of motivated people (side note: this is likely the reason why synthetic biology is having a hard time to advance as fast as people had hoped).