Weekly Top Picks #100
Ask me anything
No weekly top picks today—this column just hit 100 weeks, which calls for something different. Instead, we’re doing an Ask Me Anything (AMA).
It’s been a while since the last one, so I’m sure you have plenty of questions. And as the name suggests, you can ask literally anything. But since infinite possibilities tend to paralyze rather than inspire, here are some ideas to get you started (not that I want to be asked these, of course…):
An AI take I’ve changed my mind about in the past year
The hardest part of running a tri-weekly newsletter for nearly three years
A topic I’d love to write about but haven’t quite figured out yet
Common misunderstandings about AI I keep noticing
An AI opinion I hold that most people would strongly disagree with
The financial reality of writing on Substack full-time
What TAB could become if it ever grew beyond a newsletter
How I’m preparing for the moment AI writes better than me
If this doesn’t help, ChatGPT is your friend. Remember, everything is ChatGPTable.
I will be here all day answering so don’t be shy.
Looking forward to your questions!
— Alberto
Hey Alberto. Hope all is well. There is a possibility I will be delivering the valedictorian speech at my uni. You’re one of the wiser people I’m aware of: any thoughts on angles, ideas, concepts, perspectives you’d suggest? I’m open to anything and of course will personally curate everything myself.
Hi Alberto,
Thx for writing such a great column. I read every one of them with interest.
I have a suggestion which is along the lines of:
> An AI opinion I hold that most people would strongly disagree with
The opinion in question is that, once AGI becomes a reality, the inevitable consequence will be a total collapse of the employment market.
Most AI experts, including you (at least I think so, based on some recent posts you made), and even alarmist ones like Bengio, Hinton and Harari, seem to think that this won't happen. They base this claim on the fact that previous waves of automation (industrial revolution, computer revolution) while making some jobs obsolete, created enough new types of jobs to prevent a collapse of the employment market.
But I think past waves of automation are not good predictors of what will happen with AI. The reason being that AGI, by its very definition, means that machines will be able to do everything that humans are able to do INCLUDING any new jobs we might dream of. Human workers will have nowhere to hide or to go to reinvent themselves.
It's one thing to think that AGI will never happen. But if you believe that it will (and most AI experts seem to think it will), then the inescapable consequence is that human labour will then have zero economic value. I have yet to talk with someone who can refute this line of reasoning.
What does this mean for the world? I really don't know. It's very hard to imagine a world where human labour has zero economic value. One thing that seems plausible is that the cost of production will also fall to about zero. So maybe we will end up with a utopia where every human is born in a state where he/she is essentially retired and does not have to work to meet his/her needs.
But this brings up several interesting questions.
Firstly, even with complete automation of all human capabilities, resources will still be limited. It won't be possible for everyone to own a supersonic jet allowing them to travel from NYC to London in 2 hours. How then will we decide on the allocation of resources? Right now, for mere mortals like me, the amount of resources we control is based on the economic value of the work we produce. But once all human labour has a value of zero dollar, how will we decide who gets what? Note that this won't be an issue for the super rich because the amount of resources they control is not based on their work ability, but on the rent they extract from critical resources that they already own and control.
Another interesting question is whether humans will find meaning to their life outside of work. Today, many people define the meaning of their life in terms of the contribution they make to society through paid work. I suspect this will not be a problem though. Most retired people (including me), find their life very meaningful, even after the need for paid work has been removed. But I know this is a problem for some retired folks. Also, while I find retirement meaningful, I feel I have somehow earned it through passed work, and it's not clear that I would have found a lifetime of leasure from birth meaningful.
A third question which haunts me is the potential for societal chaos in the years between now and the moment when AGI becomes a reality. In particular, I worry that the speed at which the employment market collapse might outpace our ability to renegotiate the social contract which, at the moment, assumes you have to work to earn a comfortable living.
Most AI experts I read put the rise of AGI somewhere between 2030 and 2060. That's 40 years on the outside, which gives us very little time to renegotiate this social contract. Many political analysts attribute the recent rise of authoritarianism in the West to the fact that the middle and lower classes have lost much in the neoliberal revolution. This is a revolution that also took place over 40 years, but the magnitude of its impact on the economy may be nothing compared to the tsunami that might come with AGI.
I have difficulty seeing how that transition will happen without major social upheaval. Hitler came to power surfing on a wave of "merely" 25% unemployment. That may very well pale compared to the level of unemployment that might happen if we automate all human work (including new jobs we might dream of) in a short space of 40 years.
Anyways, I would very much like to hear your thoughts on this subject.